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According to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO),
June 2009 Long-Term Budget
Outlook, the United States is expected to run deficits each year well beyond
2035. This means we are not paying off any of the current debt, but continuing
to "refinance" year after year.
Just like what built up the mortgage bubble, the United States is blindly
believing that cheap debt and adequate lenders will always exist. Unfortunately
at some point, investors are going to wonder if the United States will be able
to pay off its massive debt without creating large amounts of inflation.
Investors are going to require higher interest rates like the 14.6% for 30 Year
US Treasuries in 1981.
The data is in Billions and adjusted for inflation back to year 2000 levels.
It can be found at
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10297/SupplementalData2009LTBO.xls
|
Year |
GDPa |
Revenueb |
Spendingc |
Debtd |
$ Rev |
$ Spending |
$ Debt |
| 2005 |
$ 10,990 |
17.9% |
20.3% |
37.5% |
$ 1,967 |
$ 2,231 |
$ 4,121 |
| 2006 |
$ 11,295 |
18.6% |
20.3% |
37.0% |
$ 2,101 |
$ 2,293 |
$ 4,179 |
| 2007 |
$ 11,524 |
18.5% |
20.2% |
37.9% |
$ 2,132 |
$ 2,328 |
$ 4,368 |
| 2008 |
$ 11,649 |
17.1% |
22.4% |
44.0% |
$ 1,992 |
$ 2,609 |
$ 5,126 |
| 2009 |
$ 11,298 |
15.8% |
26.8% |
56.6% |
$ 1,785 |
$ 3,028 |
$ 6,395 |
| 2010 |
$ 11,629 |
16.3% |
23.9% |
61.1% |
$ 1,896 |
$ 2,779 |
$ 7,105 |
| 2011 |
$ 12,093 |
17.3% |
22.8% |
64.0% |
$ 2,092 |
$ 2,757 |
$ 7,740 |
| 2012 |
$ 12,592 |
18.1% |
22.2% |
65.4% |
$ 2,279 |
$ 2,795 |
$ 8,235 |
| 2013 |
$ 13,090 |
18.3% |
22.6% |
67.0% |
$ 2,395 |
$ 2,958 |
$ 8,770 |
| 2014 |
$ 13,549 |
18.4% |
23.1% |
69.0% |
$ 2,493 |
$ 3,130 |
$ 9,349 |
| 2015 |
$ 13,915 |
18.5% |
23.6% |
71.4% |
$ 2,574 |
$ 3,284 |
$ 9,935 |
| 2016 |
$ 14,260 |
18.6% |
24.0% |
74.1% |
$ 2,652 |
$ 3,422 |
$ 10,567 |
| 2017 |
$ 14,596 |
18.6% |
24.4% |
76.7% |
$ 2,715 |
$ 3,561 |
$ 11,195 |
| 2018 |
$ 14,926 |
18.5% |
25.0% |
78.9% |
$ 2,761 |
$ 3,732 |
$ 11,777 |
| 2019 |
$ 15,258 |
18.6% |
25.6% |
82.8% |
$ 2,838 |
$ 3,906 |
$ 12,634 |
| 2020 |
$ 15,595 |
18.6% |
26.0% |
87.1% |
$ 2,901 |
$ 4,055 |
$ 13,583 |
| 2021 |
$ 15,913 |
18.7% |
26.4% |
91.7% |
$ 2,976 |
$ 4,201 |
$ 14,592 |
| 2022 |
$ 16,269 |
18.7% |
26.8% |
96.4% |
$ 3,042 |
$ 4,360 |
$ 15,683 |
| 2023 |
$ 16,639 |
18.7% |
27.2% |
101.1% |
$ 3,111 |
$ 4,526 |
$ 16,822 |
| 2024 |
$ 16,995 |
18.8% |
27.6% |
106.1% |
$ 3,195 |
$ 4,691 |
$ 18,032 |
| 2025 |
$ 17,354 |
18.8% |
28.2% |
111.5% |
$ 3,263 |
$ 4,894 |
$ 19,350 |
| 2026 |
$ 17,746 |
18.9% |
28.7% |
117.1% |
$ 3,354 |
$ 5,093 |
$ 20,781 |
| 2027 |
$ 18,122 |
18.9% |
29.2% |
123.1% |
$ 3,425 |
$ 5,292 |
$ 22,308 |
| 2028 |
$ 18,507 |
18.9% |
29.8% |
129.4% |
$ 3,498 |
$ 5,515 |
$ 23,948 |
| 2029 |
$ 18,911 |
19.0% |
30.4% |
135.9% |
$ 3,593 |
$ 5,749 |
$ 25,700 |
| 2030 |
$ 19,310 |
19.0% |
31.1% |
142.9% |
$ 3,669 |
$ 6,005 |
$ 27,594 |
| 2031 |
$ 19,730 |
19.0% |
31.6% |
149.9% |
$ 3,749 |
$ 6,235 |
$ 29,575 |
| 2032 |
$ 20,189 |
19.1% |
32.1% |
157.2% |
$ 3,856 |
$ 6,481 |
$ 31,737 |
| 2033 |
$ 20,638 |
19.1% |
32.7% |
164.8% |
$ 3,942 |
$ 6,749 |
$ 34,011 |
| 2034 |
$ 21,074 |
19.2% |
33.3% |
172.7% |
$ 4,046 |
$ 7,018 |
$ 36,395 |
| 2035 |
$ 21,563 |
19.2% |
33.9% |
180.6% |
$ 4,140 |
$ 7,310 |
$ 38,943 |
(a) GDP is found on the GDP tab (the last tab)
(b) Revenue is found on the F1-2 tab in column F
(c) Spending is found on the F1-2 tab in column I
(d) Debt is found on the F1-3 tab in column C
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